Average pitching velocity by age: what the data actually shows

One honest warning before the chart: there is no large, public, peer-reviewed dataset that gives the average fastball velocity for every single age. Showcase companies collect a lot of radar readings, but we could not find a public page that publishes their averages by age, so they are not in this chart. What does exist is a set of research studies that measured groups of pitchers at different ages and levels, plus MLB's Statcast data at the top end. Put together, they show a clear trend with a lot of spread around it.

Pitching velocity by age: published data

Metric values were converted to mph and rounded. These studies used different radar guns, different tasks (game-style pitching, flat-ground throws, lab bullpens) and different populations, so compare rows as rough reference points, not a precise curve.

What the numbers tell you

Velocity climbs steadily with age. In the 420-pitcher study by Sgroi and colleagues, age was by far the strongest predictor of velocity, and each additional year was associated with about 1.5 mph. Height, hip and shoulder separation, and stride length also mattered, and together these four factors explained 78% of the variation in pitch velocity.

Mechanics look similar across levels, strength does not. Fleisig and colleagues (Journal of Biomechanics, 1999) compared youth, high school, college and professional pitchers. Nearly all body positions and timing measures were the same across levels, while arm speeds, joint forces and ball velocity rose with level. The authors linked the larger joint forces to greater strength and muscle mass, linked the higher ball velocity to faster arm speeds and longer arms, and concluded that the natural path is to learn proper mechanics as early as possible and build strength as the body matures.

The spread is large. A standard deviation of 10 mph in a youth and adolescent sample means two healthy pitchers of the same age can easily be 15 or 20 mph apart. Much of that is size and maturity, not talent or work ethic.

Is throwing 70 mph at 14 good?

Measured against the research samples above, yes, 70 mph at 14 is above average. The youth and adolescent cohort averaged 64 mph across its ages, and a group of pitchers aged 13 to 18 with an average age of 15.3 averaged about 68 mph before training. A 14 year old throwing 70 is ahead of both.

Three things are worth keeping in mind before you celebrate or worry:

• Maturity matters more than birthday. Two 14 year olds can be years apart in physical development. An early maturer may throw hard now and level off; a late maturer may jump later. Our article on bio-banding in youth baseball explains why grouping by maturity instead of age can be fairer.
• Radar readings vary. Different guns, angles and settings can disagree, and a reading from a showcase gun is not directly comparable with a backyard reading. Compare a pitcher with himself on the same setup over time.
• Velocity is not the whole picture. Command, a second pitch and an arm that stays healthy through the season matter more at 14 than a single top reading. Olsen and colleagues (2006) found that adolescent pitchers who had shoulder or elbow surgery had pitched with higher velocity, as well as more months, more pitches and more showcases. High velocity is a reason to manage workload well, not a reason to avoid throwing hard.

If a 14 year old is throwing below the averages above, that is common and usually changes with growth and training. If he is well above them, the priority is building the strength and workload base to support it.

What a 1 to 2 mph change looks like in research

Training studies show that gains at young ages are real but usually modest over a few weeks:

• A four-week youth conditioning program with elastic tubing resistance work, a throwing program and stretching raised throwing velocity from 25.1 to 26.1 m/s, about 2 mph, in players aged 11 to 15 (Escamilla, 2010).
• Three different six-week resistance programs each raised throwing velocity in high school players aged 14 to 17 compared with a non-training group (Escamilla, 2012).
• A six-week weighted ball program increased pitch velocity by 3.3% in pitchers aged 13 to 18, but the training group also had more injuries than the control group (Reinold, 2018).

The lesson is that velocity is built across seasons, not weeks. Year-over-year improvement from growth, strength and good training adds up. Chasing big jumps in a single block is where the risk climbs.

How to measure velocity fairly

A velocity number is only useful if it is measured the same way each time. Radar guns read the ball's speed along the line they are pointed, so a gun held off to the side reads low, and some guns report peak speed near release while others read later in flight. Showcase readings, team guns and phone apps often disagree by a few mph.

• Same gun, same spot. Stand directly behind the catcher or pitcher, in line with the throw, and keep the setup identical between sessions.
• Warm up fully first. Compare readings from the same point in the session, after a normal warm-up, not the first few throws.
• Track the trend, not the peak. An average of the top few throws over several sessions says more than one big number.
• Keep it in proportion for younger kids. The American Sports Medicine Institute's position statement for adolescent pitchers goes as far as advising them to avoid using radar guns, because chasing a number can push effort and volume in the wrong direction. If you do measure, do it occasionally and on a plan.

How to build velocity at any age

• Get stronger. Strength and body mass are a big part of why older pitchers throw harder. Age-appropriate strength training is one of the most reliable levers.
• Learn efficient mechanics early. Hip and shoulder separation, stride and a good kinematic sequence carry forward across levels.
• Throw with intent, on a plan. High-intent throwing works best when it sits on a base of regular catch play and builds gradually. A steady acute:chronic workload ratio lets you add intent without big spikes.
• Respect the guidelines. Follow Pitch Smart pitch counts, rest days and months off for your age. Limits are ceilings, not training targets.
• Measure consistently. Use the same radar gun and setup each time and track the trend over months.

For a deeper dive, read our guides on how to throw harder, how to increase pitching velocity, and increasing pitching velocity in high school. If you already know your velocity and release extension, the perceived velocity calculator estimates how fast your pitch plays to a hitter.

Frequently asked questions

Build velocity on a plan

Turn velocity goals into a weekly plan with Pitch AI

Pitch AI builds a personalized throwing and strength program from your age, level, schedule, season phase and goal, including a velocity goal. Daily readiness check-ins adjust each session, and an acute:chronic workload trend helps you add intent without big spikes. Pitch AI is not a radar gun, so pair it with your own gun or pitch tracker and import TrackMan or Rapsodo exports for pitch design.

Sources and further reading

• Shitara H, et al. A combined logistic regression and decision tree analysis of factors influencing throwing velocity and accuracy in little league baseball players. JSES International, 2026
• Escamilla RF, et al. Effects of a 4-week youth baseball conditioning program on throwing velocity. Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 2010
• Escamilla RF, et al. Comparison of three baseball-specific 6-week training programs on throwing velocity in high school baseball players. Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 2012
• Sgroi T, et al. Predictors of throwing velocity in youth and adolescent pitchers. Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery, 2015
• Reinold MM, et al. Effect of a 6-Week Weighted Baseball Throwing Program on Pitch Velocity, Pitching Arm Biomechanics, Passive Range of Motion, and Injury Rates. Sports Health, 2018
• Hodakowski A, et al. The Effect of Pitch Type on Elbow Biomechanics in High School Pitchers. American Journal of Sports Medicine, 2025
• Fleisig GS, et al. Kinematic and kinetic comparison of baseball pitching among various levels of development. Journal of Biomechanics, 1999
• Washington JK, et al. Differences in Segmental Speeds as a Function of Maturation in Youth Baseball Pitchers. International Journal of Sports Medicine, 2018
• American Sports Medicine Institute. Position Statement for Adolescent Baseball Pitchers (updated 2013)
• Olsen SJ 2nd, et al. Risk factors for shoulder and elbow injuries in adolescent baseball pitchers. American Journal of Sports Medicine, 2006
• Baseball Savant (MLB Statcast), Pitch Arsenals leaderboard, average four-seam velocity, 2026 season

Related reading

• How to throw harderThe training decisions that move velocity.
• Increasing pitching velocity in high schoolA year-round plan for high school pitchers.
• Bio-banding in youth baseballWhy maturity can matter more than birthday.
• Perceived velocity calculatorHow extension changes how fast a pitch plays.
• How to increase pitching velocityBuilding velocity inside a structured week.